THE MARKET
POPULATION
7000 years ago the world population was around five million people, i.e. as many people as are living in Denmark today. At Christi’s birth, five thousand years later, the population had grown to 150 million, which is a growth of an average of 30000 people per year.
At the beginning of the 19th century, there were almost one billion people in the world. In the following one hundred years the population grow by 60%, i.e., 600 million people so that at the beginning of the 20th century there were 1,6 billion people in the world. The speed of the growth had gone up to six million people per year.
From the year 1900 to 1963 the world’s population doubled. The growth had accelerated to 25 million per year.
Next time it took only 40 years for the population to double. At the beginning of the 21st century, there were over six billion people in the world. The world had then seen 80 million new people every year.
From then to now the population has grown to almost two billion people, i.e. 86 million people per year.
2056 it is expected that the world’s population will pass 10 billion and at the end of the century there will be another billion people in the world.
As we can see clearly from the graph above the world’s population has exploded during the twenty-first century.
PRODUCTION
Wood production is a global industry that involves the harvesting, processing, and manufacturing of wood products from forests all over the world. Wood is a renewable, natural resource that has been used for centuries for a variety of purposes, including construction, furniture making, paper production, fuel, and more. Wood production is essential for a variety of industries and can have a positive environmental impact when managed sustainably.
The most common type of wood produced globally is softwood, which is primarily sourced from coniferous trees, such as pine and fir. Softwood is the most abundant type of timber and makes up most of the world’s wood production. Hardwood, which is sourced from deciduous trees such as oak and mahogany, is also produced in large quantities, but typically in smaller volumes than softwood.
Wood production is concentrated in certain regions of the world. North America, Europe, and Asia are the three largest producers of wood products. Around one billion hectares of land is used for wood and non-wood forest production around the world.
Europe is the largest producer of softwood, with Russia, Sweden, and Finland is the largest producers.
Asia is the largest producer of hardwood, with China, India, and Indonesia leading the way.
Wood production is essential for economic growth and sustainable development. When managed properly, wood products can be an important part of a healthy environment, providing jobs and income for local communities. By ensuring that forests are managed responsibly and sustainably, we can ensure that wood production is a source of ongoing economic and environmental benefits.
DEMAND
With a rapidly growing world population, the demand for wood will rise steeply. This is paired with the fact that fossil fuels will partly be substituted by renewable which include also biofuel made from wood.
The harvesting of the vital rainforests, mainly in Brazil, will most probably come to a halt, and with that less wood will be available on the market. In many countries, environmental policies reduce the number of old-growth forests available for wood production.
The demand for wood for construction purposes will increase when cement will partly be abandoned. Several high-rise houses have been constructed with wood instead of cement and more are under construction. This proves that wood is also suitable for constructions that earlier were only possible with cement or metal.
Globally the demand for premium quality wood is increasing while the available supply becomes increasingly smaller.
The global wood consumption is around 6 billion m3 per year, corresponding to the same number of trees and 12 million HA of forests or plantations, of which half is used for fuel. Other uses include construction, furniture making, and paper production.
The largest buyers and consumers of wood are the United States, China, India, Japan, and Germany.
Until the end of the century, consumption will be at least 8 billion m3 per year, 2 billion m3 more than today. That corresponds to circa the same number of trees or 4 million HA forests or tree plantations. As it takes 50-75 years for a normal tree to grow to full size and be ready to be harvested, it is easy to see that this equation is impossible if we don’t find other solutions.
There seem to be three possible ways to solve this problem:
- Either continue to cut down the existing forests in the world and continue to contribute to higher CO2 in the air.
- Reduce drastically the consumption of wood, which would mean using of other materials in construction, furniture, and paper.
- Cultivate a tree that is much faster growing than the traditional trees.
The two first alternatives would be very damaging to the ambiance. Substituting wood in construction would mean even more cement and metal than today and that is disastrous for the ambiance.
Using other material than wood in furniture would probably mean more plastic and plastic is mainly made from petrol which again would mean that the impact on the ambiance would be negative.
This means that the third alternative, faster-growing trees is the only viable way.
Industrial round wood will be Increasingly likely to come from sustainable plantations in the future as the factors outlined above continue to drive overall timber demand.
There is an urgent global need for commercial reforestation programs to replace the rapidly diminishing supply of rainforest timbers, which supply more than 75% of the world’s trade in hardwood logs, over 50% of the trade in sawn hardwood, and a significant portion of panels and pulp.
It Is widely acknowledged that areas of old-growth forest available for logging are nearing exhaustion, and the associated environmental impact with some traditional forestry methods have far-reaching and damaging effects. Sustainable commercial forestry plantations must become the major source for commercial use of timber.
At present, hardwood saw log plantations are almost non-existent. Most plantings thus far have focussed on the market for pulpwood. Prices for hardwood have jumped considerably in the last few years because of supply constraints.
PRICES
